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Research Article
Open Access

The Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Educational Attainment

Douglas N. Harris, Feng Chen, Rylie C. Martin, Ann F. Bernhardt, Christopher R. Marsicano, Paul T. von Hippel
RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences January 2024, 10 (1) 152-180; DOI: https://doi.org/10.7758/RSF.2024.10.1.07
Douglas N. Harris
aProfessor and chair of the Department of Economics at Tulane University, United States
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Feng Chen
bAssistant professor at the Li Anmin Institute of Economic Research at Liaoning University, China
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Rylie C. Martin
cAssistant director of the College Crisis Initiative (C2i) at Davidson College, United States
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Ann F. Bernhardt
dPhD student at Texas A&M University, United States
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Christopher R. Marsicano
eAssistant professor of educational studies and public policy at Davidson College, United States
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Paul T. von Hippel
fProfessor of public policy, sociology, statistics and data science at The University of Texas in Austin, United States
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Article Figures & Data

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  • Figure 1.
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    Figure 1.

    Trends in High School Graduation Rates

    Source: Authors’ tabulation.

    Note: Sample A includes 3,163 districts with no missing data on the dependent variable or covariates for 2016 through 2022. Sample B includes 4,841 districts with no missing data for 2016 through 2021. All estimates are weighted by graduate cohort size.

  • Figure 2.
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    Figure 2.

    Trends in High School Graduation Rates by Race

    Source: Authors’ tabulation.

    Note: 368 districts weighted by graduate cohort size.

  • Figure 3.
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    Figure 3.

    Trends in High School Graduation Rates by Poverty, Disability, and Language Status

    Source: Authors’ tabulation.

    Note: 476 districts weighted by graduate cohort size.

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    Figure 4.

    Trends in College Entry

    Source: Authors’ tabulation.

    Note: The sample included 874 two-year colleges and 1,860 four-year colleges. The y-axis is the average college entry size.

  • Figure 5.
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    Figure 5.

    Trends in Two-Year College Entry by Race

    Source: Authors’ tabulation.

    Note: Colleges are grouped by the race of the majority of students. For example, a White college is one at which at least 50 percent of students are White. By this definition, the sample has 533 White, 39 Black, and 78 Hispanic-serving two-year colleges. Colleges where no group accounts for 50 percent of enrollment are not shown. The y-axis is the average college entry size.

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    Figure 6.

    Trends in Two-Year College Entry by Pell

    Source: Authors’ tabulation.

    Note: 590 two-year colleges have Pell grant per first-time student below the national average, and 282 colleges are above the average. The y-axis is the average college entry size.

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    Figure 7.

    Trends in Four-Year College Entry by Race

    Source: Authors’ tabulation.

    Note: The sample includes 1,240 White, 103 Black, and 60 Hispanic-serving colleges.

  • Figure 8.
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    Figure 8.

    Trends in Four-Year College Entry by Pell

    Source: Authors’ tabulation.

    Note: See figure 6 for more detail. N (Pell Grant < Mean) = 1,518, N (Pell Grant >= Mean) = 333.

  • Figure 9.
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    Figure 9.

    Change in Enrollment and Entry, K–16 (2021 minus pre-COVID)

    Source: Authors’ tabulation.

    Note: All data for figure 9 are for the 2021 school year. The K–12 numbers are enrollment changes based on analysis reported in the New York Times based on data from the National Center for Education Statistics. The high school graduation and college entry numbers are from figures 1 and 2 in our analysis. The college enrollment numbers are from the National Student Clearinghouse.

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RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences: 10 (1)
RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences
Vol. 10, Issue 1
1 Jan 2024
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The Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Educational Attainment
Douglas N. Harris, Feng Chen, Rylie C. Martin, Ann F. Bernhardt, Christopher R. Marsicano, Paul T. von Hippel
RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences Jan 2024, 10 (1) 152-180; DOI: 10.7758/RSF.2024.10.1.07

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The Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Educational Attainment
Douglas N. Harris, Feng Chen, Rylie C. Martin, Ann F. Bernhardt, Christopher R. Marsicano, Paul T. von Hippel
RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences Jan 2024, 10 (1) 152-180; DOI: 10.7758/RSF.2024.10.1.07
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    • Abstract
    • THEORY
    • DATA
    • ECONOMETRIC FRAMEWORK
    • RESULTS: TRENDS IN ATTAINMENT
    • RESULTS: MECHANISMS OF ATTAINMENT VARIATION
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Keywords

  • COVID
  • pandemics
  • educational attainment
  • high school graduation
  • college-going

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