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Research Article
Open Access

The Effects of the Great Depression on Children’s Intergenerational Mobility

Martha J. Bailey, Peter Z. Lin, A. R. Shariq Mohammed, Alexa Prettyman
RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences January 2024, 10 (1) 32-56; DOI: https://doi.org/10.7758/RSF.2024.10.1.02
Martha J. Bailey
aProfessor of economics at the University of California, Los Angeles, and a fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, United States
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Peter Z. Lin
bAssistant professor of economics at Western Kentucky University
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A. R. Shariq Mohammed
cAssistant professor of economics at Northeastern University
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Alexa Prettyman
dAssistant professor of economics at Towson University
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    Figure 1.

    Geographic Distribution of Great Depression’s Severity as Measured by the Growth in Retail Sales, 1929–1933

    Source: Authors’ tabulation using Fishback et al. 2005.

    Note: The growth rates in retail sales per capita are calculated by differences between the per capita retail sales in 1929 and 1933.

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    Figure 2.

    Intergenerational Persistence Estimates, by Birth Cohort and Sex

    Source: Authors’ tabulation using LIFE-M data (Bailey et al. 2022).

    Note: This figure plots intergenerational occupational and educational mobility by child’s birth year. In panel A, we estimate intergenerational occupational mobility by regressing a child’s occupational rank (husband’s occupational rank, if women) on father’s occupational rank and allow the rank-rank coefficient to change by child’s birth year. Occupational ranks are based on the national distribution of occupational income scores created by Collins and Wanamaker (2022). In panel B, we estimate educational mobility by regressing a child’s years of schooling on father’s years of schooling and also allow the slope coefficients to change by child’s birth year. Regressions are weighted by the inverse propensity scores, and 90 percent confidence intervals are shown as well as the point estimates. To smooth the trend by birth year, we drop two people with large weights causing large standard errors. To see similar plots by state, see figures A.1 and A.2.

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    Figure 3.

    Heterogeneous Effects of Great Depression on Intergenerational Mobility, by Individual and County Characteristics

    Source: Authors’ tabulation using the LIFE-M data (Bailey et al. 2022).

    Notes: This figure plots heterogeneous effects by various community and individual-level attributes. A positive coefficient in this figure indicates that a more severe economic downturn increases mobility for individuals with the specified attributes or living in a community with that attribute, compared to the individual without that attribute. Results are similar if we use continuous measures for applicable attributes. The median values of retail sales, manufacturing employment, public works funding, etc., are listed in table A.3. We also report the number of people satisfying the specified attribute in parentheses. For example, in the occupational analysis, there are 7,252 men in North Carolina ages nine to fourteen by 1929. The confidence intervals have not been adjusted for multiple hypothesis testing. See text for discussion of p-values applying the Bonferroni correction (Dunn 1961). To see similar plots by state, see figure A.3.

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RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences: 10 (1)
RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences
Vol. 10, Issue 1
1 Jan 2024
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The Effects of the Great Depression on Children’s Intergenerational Mobility
Martha J. Bailey, Peter Z. Lin, A. R. Shariq Mohammed, Alexa Prettyman
RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences Jan 2024, 10 (1) 32-56; DOI: 10.7758/RSF.2024.10.1.02

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The Effects of the Great Depression on Children’s Intergenerational Mobility
Martha J. Bailey, Peter Z. Lin, A. R. Shariq Mohammed, Alexa Prettyman
RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences Jan 2024, 10 (1) 32-56; DOI: 10.7758/RSF.2024.10.1.02
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY IN THE UNITED STATES OVER TIME
    • LIFE-M DATA AND ANALYTIC SAMPLES
    • EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
    • RESULTS
    • DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
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Keywords

  • children
  • Great Depression
  • intergenerational mobility

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