Research Article
Open Access

The Great Decoupling: The Disconnection Between Criminal Offending and Experience of Arrest Across Two Cohorts

Vesla M. Weaver, Andrew Papachristos, Michael Zanger-Tishler
RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences February 2019, 5 (1) 89-123; DOI: https://doi.org/10.7758/RSF.2019.5.1.05

Article Figures & Data

Figures

  • Figure 1.
    Figure 1.

    Basic Depiction of the Relationship Between Contact and Conduct

    Source: Authors’ compilation.

  • Figure 2.
    Figure 2.

    Odds of Arrest by Self-Reported Offending and Cohort

    Source: Authors’ compilation based on the NLSY (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2014, 2015).

    Note: Self-reported crime does not include drug use. Analysis limited to those respondents at least eighteen years of age. The 1979 cohort analysis excludes military and low-SES white oversamples. Analysis is unweighted; analysis with weights is not different.

  • Figure 3.
    Figure 3.

    Odds of Incarceration by Self-Reported Offending and Cohort

    Source: Authors’ compilation based on the NLSY (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2014, 2015).

  • Figure 4.
    Figure 4.

    Odds of Arrest by Offending, Demographic Group, and Cohort

    Source: Authors’ compilation based on the NLSY (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2014, 2015).

  • Figure 5.
    Figure 5.

    Results of Logistic Regression Predicting Arrest, 1979 and 1997 NLSY

    Source: Authors’ compilation based on the NLSY (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2014, 2015).

  • Figure 6.
    Figure 6.

    Predicted Probability of Arrest by Offending and Cohort

    Source: Authors’ compilation based on the NLSY (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2014, 2015).

    Note: Unweighted. Logistic regressions with controls for age, gender, race, region, urbanicity, education, leaving school before completing high school. Confidence intervals appear in gray.

  • Figure 7.
    Figure 7.

    Predicted Probability of Arrest by Self-Reported Offending, 1979

    Source: Authors’ compilation based on the NLSY (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2014, 2015).

    Note: Unweighted. Logistic regressions with controls for age, gender, race, region, urbanicity, education, leaving school before completing high school. Confidence intervals appear in gray.

  • Figure 8.
    Figure 8.

    Predicted Probability of Arrest by Self-Reported Offending, 1997

    Source: Authors’ compilation based on the NLSY (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2014, 2015).

    Note: Unweighted. Logistic regressions with controls for age, gender, race, region, urbanicity, education, leaving school before completing high school. Confidence intervals appear in gray.

  • Figure 9.
    Figure 9.

    Multinomial Logit Regression Results

    Source: Authors’ compilation based on the NLSY (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2014, 2015).

Tables

  • Table A1.
  • Table A2.
  • Table A3.
  • Table A4.
  • Table A5.
  • Table A6.
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The Great Decoupling: The Disconnection Between Criminal Offending and Experience of Arrest Across Two Cohorts
Vesla M. Weaver, Andrew Papachristos, Michael Zanger-Tishler
RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences Feb 2019, 5 (1) 89-123; DOI: 10.7758/RSF.2019.5.1.05
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