Level of Criminal Justice Contact and Early Adult Wage Inequality

Full Quantile Regression Estimates of the Relationship Between Arrest and Hourly Wage

Source: Authors’ estimates from respondents’ last available round of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, rounds 1–17 (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2015).

Note: Estimates are unweighted. The coefficients derive from unconditional quantile regression models of log hourly wage with sibling fixed effects, with cluster-robust standard errors obtained from the bootstrap with 250 replications. The confidence intervals are 90 percent (light gray) and 95 percent (dark gray). For graphing purposes, the coefficients and confidence intervals are censored at +0.3 and –0.5. The solid horizontal line is drawn at zero to judge statistical significance, whereas the dashed horizontal lines are drawn to judge substantive significance. Specifically, the long-dashed lines mark a small effect size (|d| = 0.20), and the short-dashed line marks a medium effect size (|d| = 0.50).

Full Quantile Regression Estimates of the Relationship Between Incarceration and Hourly Wage

Source: Authors’ estimates from respondents’ last available round of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, rounds 1–17 (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2015).

Note: Estimates are unweighted. The coefficients derive from unconditional quantile regression models of log hourly wage with sibling fixed effects, with cluster-robust standard errors obtained from the bootstrap with 250 replications. The confidence intervals are 90 percent (light gray) and 95 percent (dark gray). For graphing purposes, the coefficients and confidence intervals are censored at +0.3 and –0.7. The solid horizontal line is drawn at zero to judge statistical significance, whereas the dashed horizontal lines are drawn to judge substantive significance. Specifically, the long-dashed lines mark a small effect size (|d| = 0.20), and the short-dashed line marks a medium effect size (|d| = 0.50).

Implied Relationship Between Criminal Justice Contact and Hourly Wage in 2016 Dollars, Black Respondents

Source: Authors’ estimates from respondents’ last available round of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, rounds 1–17 (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2015).

Note: Estimates are unweighted. The coefficients derive from unconditional quantile regression models of log hourly wage with sibling fixed effects, and average over the difference in exponentiated marginal predictions.