Not Just White Soccer Moms: Voting in Suburbia in the 2016 and 2020 Elections

Abstract

Conventional narratives of the 2020 presidential election typically overlook the growing importance of voters of color in suburbia, especially in battleground states such as Georgia and Virginia. Using novel precinct-level voting data for twenty-two states for the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, we analyze the relationship between precinct-level Democratic vote shares and the racial composition of suburban precincts. Predominantly White suburban precincts turned modestly toward the Democratic Party in 2020 relative to 2016, but had the election been decided in the precincts in which most White suburban voters live, Donald Trump would have won both elections handily. The outcome in 2020 depended on turnout in heavily Black suburban precincts, which voted overwhelmingly for Biden, and in Asian and Latinx precincts that also supported Democrats, though less strongly. As the suburbs become increasingly diverse, the new racial demography of suburbs should change conventional understandings of voting behavior in these spaces.