Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-c47g7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T18:20:38.861Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Decline of Electoral Participation in America

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 September 1982

Paul R. Abramson
Affiliation:
Michigan State University
John H. Aldrich
Affiliation:
University of Minnesota

Abstract

Since 1960 turnout has declined in presidential elections, and since 1966 it has declined in off-year congressional elections. These declines occurred despite several major trends that could have increased electoral participation. An analysis of the eight SRC-CPS presidential election surveys conducted between 1952 and 1980 and of the six SRC-CPS congressional election surveys conducted between 1958 and 1978 suggests that these declines may result largely from the combined impact of two attitudinal trends: the weakening of party identification and declining beliefs about government responsiveness, that is, lowered feelings of “external” political efficacy. Between two-thirds and seven-tenths of the decline in presidential turnout between 1960 and 1980 appears to result from the combined impact of these trends. Data limitations hinder our efforts to study the decline of congressional turnout, but approximately two-fifths to one-half of the decline between 1966 and 1978 appears to result from the combined impact of these attitudinal trends.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1982

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramson, Paul R., and Aldrich, John H. 1981. The decline of electoral participation in America. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, N.Y.10.2307/1963728CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abramson, Paul R., and Aldrich, John H. 1977. The political socialization of black Americans: a critical evaluation of research on efficacy and trust. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Abramson, Paul R., and Finifter, Ada W. 1981. On the meaning of political trust: new evidence from items introduced in 1978. American Journal of Political Science 25:297307.10.2307/2110854CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aldrich, John H. 1976. Some problems in testing two rational models of participation. American Journal of Political Science 20:713–33.10.2307/2110568CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aldrich, John H. 1977. Electoral choice in 1972: a test of some theorems of the spatial model of electoral competition. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 5:215–37.10.1080/0022250X.1977.9989874CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aldrich, John H., and Cnudde, Charles F. 1975. Probing the bounds of conventional wisdom: a comparison of regression, probit, and discriminant analysis. American Journal of Political Science 19:571–608.10.2307/2110547CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ashenfelter, Orley, and Kelly, Stanley Jr. 1975. Determinants of participation in presidential elections. Journal of Law and Economics 18:695–733.10.1086/466834CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Balch, George I. 1974. Multiple indicators in survey research: the concept ‘sense of political efficacy.’ Political Methodology 1:143.Google Scholar
Boyd, Richard W. 1981. Decline of U.S. voter turnout: structural explanations. American Politics Quarterly 9:133–59.10.1177/1532673X8100900201CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brody, Richard A. 1978. The puzzle of political participation in America. In The New American Political System, ed. King, Anthony, pp. 287324. Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E.; Miller, Warren E.; and Stokes, Donald E. 1960. The American Voter. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Cassel, Carol A. 1981. On solving the ‘puzzle’ of participation: a methodological critique. Unpublished, University of Houston.Google Scholar
Cassel, Carol A., and Hill, David B. 1981. Explanations of turnout decline: a multivariate test. American Politics Quarterly 9:181–95.10.1177/1532673X8100900203CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cavanagh, Thomas E. 1981. Changes in American voter turnout, 1964–1976. Political Science Quarterly 96:5365.10.2307/2149676CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chow, Gregory C. 1960. Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions. Econometrica 28:591–605.10.2307/1910133CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Citrin, Jack. 1974. Comment: the political relevance of trust in government. American Political Science Review 68:973–88.10.2307/1959141CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Citrin, Jack. 1981. The changing American electorate. In Politics and the oval office: towards presidential governance, ed. Meltsner, Arnold J., pp. 3161. San Francisco: Institute for Contemporary Affairs.Google Scholar
Converse, Philip E. 1972. Change in the American electorate. In The human meaning of social change, eds. Campbell, Angus and Converse, Philip E., pp. 263337. New York: Russell Sage.Google Scholar
Converse, Philip E. 1976. The dynamics of party support: cohort-analyzing party identification. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage Publications.Google Scholar
Conway, M. Margaret. 1981. Political participation in midterm congressional elections: attitudinal and social characteristics during the 1970s. American Politics Quarterly 9:221–44.10.1177/1532673X8100900205CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Craig, Stephen C. 1979. Efficacy, trust, and political behavior: an attempt to resolve a lingering conceptual dilemma. American Politics Quarterly 7:225–39.10.1177/1532673X7900700207CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DeNardo, James. 1980. Turnout and the vote: the joke's on the Democrats. American Political Science Review 74:406–20.10.2307/1960636CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferejohn, John A., and Fiorina, Morris P. 1974. The paradox of not voting: a decision theoretic analysis. American Political Science Review 68:525–36.10.1017/S0003055400117368CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferejohn, John A., and Fiorina, Morris P. 1979. The decline of turnout in presidential elections. Paper presented at the National Science Foundation Conference on Voter Turnout, San Diego.Google Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. 1981. Retrospective voting in American national elections. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Glenn, Norval D. 1972. Sources of the shift to political independence: some evidence from a cohort analysis. Social Science Quarterly 53:494519.Google Scholar
Hill, David B., and Luttbeg, Norman R. 1980. Trends in American electoral behavior. Itasca, Ill.: Peacock.Google Scholar
House, James S., and Mason, William M. 1975. Political alienation in America, 1952–1968. American Sociological Review 40:123–47.10.2307/2094341CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hout, Michael, and Knoke, David. 1975. Change in voting turnout, 1952–1972. Public Opinion Quarterly 39:5268.10.1086/268199CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Katosh, John P., and Traugott, Michael W. 1981. The consequences of validated and self-reported voting measures. Public Opinion Quarterly 45:519–35.10.1086/268685CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McKelvey, Richard D., and Zavoina, William. 1975. A statistical model for the analysis of ordinal level dependent variables. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 4:103–20.10.1080/0022250X.1975.9989847CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, Warren E. 1980. Disinterest, disaffection, and participation in presidential politics. Political Behavior 2:732.10.1007/BF00989754CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, Warren E.; Miller, Arthur H.; and Schneider, Edward J. 1980. American national election studies data sourcebook, 1952–1978. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Reiter, Howard L. 1979. Why is turnout down? Public Opinion Quarterly 43:297311.10.1086/268523CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Riker, William H., and Ordeshook, Peter C. 1968. A theory of the calculus of voting. American Political Science Review 62:2542.10.1017/S000305540011562XCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rollenhagen, Rick E. 1981. Explaining variation in concern about the outcome of presidential elections, 1960–1980. Unpublished, Michigan State University.Google Scholar
Shaffer, Stephen D. 1981. A multivariate explanation of decreasing turnout in presidential elections, 1960–1976. American Journal of Political Science 25: 6895.10.2307/2110913CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shively, W. Phillips. 1980. The nature of party identification: a review of recent developments. In The Electorate Reconsidered, eds. Pierce, John C. and Sullivan, John L., pp. 219236. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage Publications.Google Scholar
Traugott, Michael W., and Katosh, John P. 1979. Response validity in surveys of voting behavior. Public Opinion Quarterly 43:359–77.10.1086/268527CrossRefGoogle Scholar
U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1980. Statistical abstract of the United States: 1980. 101st ed. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
U.S. Bureau of the Census. 1981. Voting and registration in the election of November 1980 (Advance Report). Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
Weisberg, Herbert F. 1980. A multidimensional conceptualization of party identification. Political Behavior 2:3360.10.1007/BF00989755CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wolfinger, Raymond E., and Rosenstone, Steven J. 1980. Who votes? New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Wright, James D. 1976. The dissent of the governed: alienation and democracy in America. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar