Climate of Exclusion: Spillover Effects of Home-Country Natural Disasters on Immigrant Removals from the United States

Total Immigrant Removals and Maximum Natural Disaster Magnitude by Country

Source: Authors’ compilation based on Yearbook of Immigration Statistics (US Department of Homeland Security, n.d.) and Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT): The International Disaster Database (https://doc.emdat.be/docs/).

Note: Total removals reflect the sum of all removals from 2000 to 2019. Disaster magnitude captures the percent of the country’s population that was affected or killed by natural disasters. The map reflects the maximum magnitude experienced by a country from 2000 to 2019.

Event Study Estimates Predicting the Effect of Home-Country Natural Disasters on Immigrant Removals

Source: Authors’ compilation based on the Yearbook of Immigration Statistics (US Department of Homeland Security, n.d.), Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT): The International Disaster Database (https://doc.emdat.be/docs/), ACS (Ruggles et al. 2023), World Bank development indicators (https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators), and the University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative 2023.

Note: Figure shows results from event studies estimated using the Callaway and Sant’Anna estimator. The model includes baseline controls: TPS, disaster readiness, disaster vulnerability, US male immigrant population aged 18 to 65 (logged), US immigrant population aged 18 to 65 with a high school degree or less (logged), and the country unemployment rate. Models also include country and year fixed effects. Salient natural disasters are defined as those in which more than 1 percent of the population was affected or killed by natural disasters over the prior year. The outcome is total immigrant removals (logged). Always-treated units are omitted from the analyses.